Warnings about empty store shelves are shifting from whispers to headlines.
Top U.S. retail executives told President Trump that a prolonged trade war with China could choke store inventories, sparking price hikes and product shortages across the country.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently described the trade war as “unsustainable,” and early cracks are showing.
Manufacturing orders from China are falling, Chinese freight bookings are drying up, and shipping lanes between the two nations are slowing. The supply chain is inching toward a tipping point.
First to feel the sting? Apparel and footwear. China supplied 37% of U.S. apparel imports and 58% of footwear imports in 2024.
Steve Lamar, president of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, said the new tariffs operate “as an import ban.”
According to the AAFA, tariffs that once averaged 18.5% have now ballooned, often exceeding 160%—and sometimes even 200%.
Because so much sourcing depends on China, companies had little time to shift suppliers. Lamar warned that canceled orders and stalled warehouse stockpiles could soon trigger visible shortages.
Companies have scrambled to get ahead. Walmart, IKEA, and Amazon ramped up imports early, but SONAR shipping data shows a sharp pullback is underway.
Adding to the uncertainty, a Chinese government official recently stated that “at present, there are absolutely no negotiations on the economy and trade between China and the U.S.”
If tariffs continue at current levels, U.S. consumers could face even deeper shortages, especially as Chinese manufacturers turn to other markets.
That would force the U.S. to compete harder for global production capacity—a business challenge that could reshape the retail landscape for years.
Michael Salerno, vice president of international banking at FNBO, said the coming months are crucial. “We are looking at port container volumes mid-May, June, and July,” he said. “It’s too early to tell right now.”
Meanwhile, canceled ocean freight sailings are stacking up. Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, said many blank sailings are being announced with little notice.
After hitting Asia–North America West Coast routes first, they are now rising sharply along routes to East Coast ports. Murphy noted a major spike starting the week of May 5, describing it as “quite extreme.”
In late April and early May alone, blanked sailings have wiped out 35% to 42% of planned shipping capacity.
The first products to vanish will likely be low-cost, fast-moving goods. “The U.S. retail system is built on speed and scale,” said Casey Armstrong, CMO of ShipBob.
“When that engine stutters—whether from tariffs, customs delays, or sourcing constraints—it’s the lowest-margin, fastest-moving goods that disappear first.”
Budget toys, games, home goods, and back-to-school supplies are expected to thin out first. Fast fashion basics like T-shirts, leggings, socks, and kids’ clothing would follow.
Armstrong also pointed out that even cheap electronics might dry up because many components are still made in China.
Not all retailers are pulling back. Home Depot, for instance, has increased orders from Chinese suppliers, according to Import Genius shipping data.
Still, online stores relying on dropshipping and tax-free imports from China face looming trouble. Starting May 2, the de minimis trade exemption closes, tightening the screws even further.
Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy for the National Retail Federation, said frontloading has softened the blow so far. But he warned that canceled and delayed orders will soon cut into inventories.
“The effects will likely become tangible in the coming months as shipments that are subject to the higher tariffs begin to arrive and make their way through retail inventory,” Gold said.
Gold added that smaller retailers, in particular, should brace for fewer choices and higher prices just as they gear up for the all-important winter holiday season.
As summer approaches, America’s retail shelves could start to look a little emptier—unless trade talks somehow turn the tide.
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