With renewed tariff threats from President-elect Donald Trump, U.S. retailers and manufacturers are rushing to expedite shipments.
Trump’s sweeping proposal—tariffs of 10-20% on all imports and up to 100% on Chinese goods—has sent companies into “front-loading” mode to prepare for potential price hikes.
“This is 2018 all over again,” says Paul Brashier of ITS Logistics, referring to the spike in tariffs during Trump’s first term.
Anticipation of increased demand is already pushing container rates and trucking costs higher, while stock values for logistics giants like J.B. Hunt and Norfolk Southern rose on Wednesday.
Ocean carriers such as Maersk, meanwhile, saw a sharp sell-off, despite strong U.S. demand.
Shipping analysts describe the reaction as excessive, noting that while tariffs may increase trade costs, they don’t always stifle demand.
Leading analyst Peter Sand from Xeneta comments on the “knee-jerk” reaction, with shippers worldwide aiming to import goods before new tariffs take effect.
He recalls the freight rate surge in 2018, which rose over 70%, signaling a possible repeat.
Likewise, Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, anticipates a rise in container demand as companies stock up on non-time-sensitive goods, possibly driving short-term rate increases.
Some market watchers view the recent dip in shipping stocks as an overreaction.
Analysts like Omar Nokta from Jefferies suggest that this wave of pre-orders could bolster carrier earnings in the short term, although sustained tariffs could impact global trade volumes and dampen long-term prospects.
In the business community, fears of extended tariffs are causing many companies to rethink supply chain strategies as they work to secure goods before the policies take effect.
Trump’s trade plans also include a potential renegotiation of the USMCA agreement by 2026, which may influence cross-border trade with Mexico, where year-to-date figures show a record 52% increase.
Jordan Dewart of Redwood Mexico notes that even a brief shift in tariffs could lead to increased freight volumes, driving up costs and creating bottlenecks in U.S.-Mexico storage facilities.
National Retail Federation CEO Matthew Shay cautions that broad tariffs would effectively act as a “tax on American families,” potentially fueling inflation and risking job losses across various sectors.
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