Donald Trump’s presidential campaign has highlighted housing affordability, with promises to stimulate homebuilding and cut regulatory red tape.
Trump recently shared plans to open federal lands for new housing developments, aiming to close the U.S. housing gap that’s left four million homes short, according to the National Association of Realtors.
But while the goal sounds promising, the path might be winding.
Trump’s push for deregulation could potentially lower construction costs, which currently account for a hefty portion of home prices.
Dennis Shea of the Bipartisan Policy Center highlighted Trump’s past executive order targeting regulatory barriers, seeing it as a possible foundation for future policies.
Industry figures suggest regulation can make up 24% of single-family home costs and 41% for multifamily units.
Even with relaxed rules, though, experts warn the solution isn’t as simple as slicing red tape.
Labor remains a challenge. A proposed mass deportation policy might squeeze the construction industry, where immigrants make up nearly a third of the workforce.
Jacob Channel, senior economist at LendingTree, explains that deportations could tighten labor availability, driving up wages and thus home prices.
Recruiting younger American workers into the construction field has proven difficult, with surveys showing only minimal interest among U.S.-born youth.
Another roadblock could come from Trump’s potential tariff policies. Proposed tariffs between 10% and 20% on raw materials, especially from China, may drive up the costs of essential building supplies like lumber.
According to Redfin’s Daryl Fairweather, such tariffs would likely translate into higher prices for consumers, slowing down affordability efforts Trump envisions.
Finally, the lands Trump aims to repurpose for housing are often in rural regions, which may not ease the burden in urban centers where housing scarcity bites hardest.
As Fairweather points out, densely populated cities might continue to struggle despite these federal releases.
Trump’s strategy could reshape the housing landscape, but with rising material and labor costs, the question is whether his plans will genuinely address affordability or only deepen the existing divides in the U.S. business of housing.
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