Singapore’s economy expanded at its fastest pace since 2021, clocking a 4.4% GDP growth in 2024, driven by wholesale trade, finance, and manufacturing, according to government data released Friday.
The rebound far outpaced the 1.8% expansion in 2023, with fourth-quarter growth hitting 5%—beating economists’ 4.7% forecast but trailing the prior quarter’s 5.7% surge.
The latest figures arrive just weeks before Prime Minister Lawrence Wong’s highly anticipated 2025 budget announcement on Feb. 18.
Despite the strong showing, Singapore is keeping its 2025 GDP growth outlook unchanged at 1% to 3%, as external risks mount.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) cited a “large cone of uncertainty” around the U.S. economy, warning that policy shifts under a new administration could shape global trade dynamics.
China’s cooling economy remains another wildcard. Slower investment and trade, exacerbated by tariffs and industrial overcapacity, could weigh on Singapore’s exports.
Yet, MTI sees bright spots ahead—electronics manufacturing is expected to thrive on strong semiconductor demand, while finance, insurance, and information sectors should continue expanding.
However, consumer-facing industries tell a different story. Retail trade and food and beverage services shrank in 2024 as locals spent more overseas, a trend unlikely to reverse in 2025.
Still, a rebound in international tourism could offer a partial offset.
Maybank analyst Chua Hak Bin expects 2025 to be a “more uncertain” year, predicting full-year GDP growth of 2.6%, near the upper end of MTI’s range.
“Trump’s broadening tariff war will slow growth and trade in 2025, particularly in the second half,” he said. On the domestic front, easing monetary conditions, a generous pre-election budget, and a step-up in construction activity “will backstop growth in 2025, cushioning the impact from Trump’s tariff tantrums,” Chua added.
As Singapore navigates these crosscurrents, the question is not whether growth will slow—but by how much. Business leaders will be closely monitoring economic shifts, assessing how policy changes in key markets could impact trade and investment.
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