The stage is set for a monumental shift in Nvidia’s stock value, with U.S. equity options traders predicting a staggering $300 billion swing as the tech giant unveils its latest earnings report.
Nvidia, the undisputed leader in artificial intelligence (AI) chips, is bracing for a potential 9.8% fluctuation in its shares on Thursday, a day after the earnings announcement, according to data from analytics firm ORATS.
This expected move dwarfs any previous earnings-related shifts for Nvidia over the past three years, significantly exceeding the stock’s average post-earnings swing of 8.1%.
With Nvidia’s current market capitalization hovering around $3.11 trillion, a 9.8% change could translate into a $305 billion shift—potentially the largest ever for any company, analysts suggest.
To put this in perspective, such a swing could eclipse the market value of 95% of S&P 500 companies, including heavyweights like Netflix and Merck, as per LSEG data.
Nvidia’s influence on the broader market is immense. Its stock has surged roughly 150% year-to-date, contributing nearly a quarter of the S&P 500’s 18% gain in the same period.
“It’s the Atlas holding up the market,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, emphasizing Nvidia’s critical role in bolstering the overall profitability of the S&P 500.
Options traders are particularly wary of missing out on a potential rally rather than fearing a downturn.
Susquehanna Financial’s analysis reveals a 7% chance of Nvidia’s stock rising more than 20% by Friday, compared to just a 4% probability of a similar-sized drop.
“Typically, ahead of earnings, traders buy hedges—insurance against losses. But with Nvidia, much of that insurance is FOMO insurance,” Sosnick added, referring to the fear of missing out. “They don’t want to miss a rally.”
Part of this heightened anticipation stems from Nvidia’s historical business volatility.
The company’s average 30-day historical volatility this year—reflecting the stock’s tendency to gyrate—has been nearly double that of other trillion-dollar companies, according to Reuters’ analysis of Trade Alert data.
In short, all eyes are on Nvidia as the company prepares to reveal its earnings, with traders bracing for what could be a record-breaking market reaction.
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