Egg prices are soaring, and experts warn that relief is unlikely before 2025.
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), better known as bird flu, continues to disrupt egg production, keeping prices elevated since 2023.
Kevin Bergquist, Sector Manager at Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, explained that the increase stems from seasonal holiday demand combined with ongoing disruptions to supply caused by bird flu.
Egg prices have consistently remained higher than in 2023, and they often exceeded the elevated prices seen in 2022 when HPAI first significantly impacted the market.
The Price Puzzle: Wholesale vs. Retail
Wholesale egg prices jumped nearly 55% in November, but grocery prices paint a more varied picture.
According to the Consumer Price Index, grocery prices rose 0.5% last month, with eggs showing the largest increase at 8.2%.
Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs collectively rose 1.7%, underscoring the strain on household budgets.
Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute Chief Agricultural Economist Dr. Michael Swanson noted that consumer prices for eggs often remain disconnected from wholesale trends.
Retailers may choose to absorb short-term losses or adjust margins to avoid alienating customers with sharp price hikes on staples like milk and eggs.
These pricing strategies underscore the balancing act businesses face between profit and customer retention.
A Flock in Flux
Before the major bird flu outbreak in March 2022, flock numbers were stable, supporting lower egg prices with wholesale costs under $1.50 per dozen.
However, the outbreak caused widespread disruption, leading to record-high prices in December 2022.
Producers began rebuilding flocks in 2023, stabilizing prices briefly before the virus reemerged in late 2023 and 2024.
Despite efforts to recover, recurring outbreaks have hindered flock restoration, leaving egg supplies constrained.
Producers are still struggling to rebuild their flocks as the disease remains a persistent challenge, suggesting a prolonged period of higher costs for consumers.
Egg prices may continue to reflect the vulnerabilities in global food supply chains.
For now, shoppers will need to adjust expectations as the market adapts to ongoing disruptions.
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