Nvidia, the chip-making titan, currently boasts a market cap of $1 trillion, frequently brushing against the $1.2 trillion milestone—a feat only Apple and Microsoft have consistently maintained.
But by 2029, Amazon and Alphabet might not just catch up—they could leave Nvidia in the dust.
Amazon’s current valuation stands at $1.4 trillion.
To hit the $2.1 trillion mark by 2029, the company would need to deliver a total return of 58%, translating to an annual growth rate of 10.7% over the next four and a half years.
Meanwhile, Alphabet, valued at $1.5 trillion, would require a 50% increase, or 9.4% annual growth, to reach the same milestone.
Let’s break down the numbers.
Amazon: A Triple Threat
Amazon is firing on all cylinders with three powerful growth engines—e-commerce, digital advertising, and cloud computing.
As the largest online marketplace in the U.S., Amazon dominates with 41% of domestic retail e-commerce sales, a position bolstered by its sprawling logistics network that ensures swift delivery and seller support.
But Amazon’s ambitions don’t stop at retail.
It’s also a formidable player in ad tech, particularly in the booming retail media sector.
eMarketer reports that retail media is one of the fastest-growing verticals in digital advertising—a growth Amazon is well-positioned to exploit, especially with its recent move to introduce ads on Prime Video.
Then there’s Amazon Web Services (AWS), the crown jewel of Amazon’s empire. AWS leads the public cloud market, commanding a 32% share in the latest quarter.
CEO Andy Jassy highlights the company’s relentless focus on AI, revealing that AWS has launched more machine learning and generative AI features than all its competitors combined over the past 18 months.
With U.S. retail e-commerce expected to grow at 9% annually and retail media spending projected to surge by 24% through 2028, Amazon is primed for sustained double-digit revenue growth.
If the company can maintain a 12% annual revenue increase, it could easily achieve a $3 trillion valuation by 2029, with a modest 3 times sales multiple.
Alphabet: The Digital Ad Dynamo
Alphabet’s growth story centers on its dominance in digital advertising and cloud computing.
The company’s portfolio includes six products with over two billion monthly users, with YouTube and Google Search leading the charge.
These platforms give Alphabet unparalleled reach, allowing it to deliver highly targeted ads with surgical precision.
This year, Alphabet is expected to account for 27.4% of global digital ad spending, comfortably outpacing Meta, its closest rival.
Even as the company loses some ground across the open internet, its stronghold in search and streaming video ensures it stays ahead in the digital ad race.
On the cloud front, Google Cloud is emerging as a key player, with its market share rising to 12% over the past year.
Alphabet’s edge in AI infrastructure and large language models is paying off, with CEO Sundar Pichai noting that AI-driven solutions have already generated billions in revenue this year.
With global digital ad spending projected to grow at 10% annually and public cloud spending set to compound at 19% through 2028, Alphabet is on track for significant revenue growth.
If Alphabet can sustain a 10% annual increase in revenue, it could hit the $3 trillion mark by 2029, assuming a 6 times sales multiple—a slight discount from its current valuation.
The Road Ahead
Both Amazon and Alphabet have the wind at their backs, with diversified revenue streams and a clear growth path.
For business investors, the next few years could see these tech giants not only matching Nvidia’s market cap but possibly surpassing it.
The question now is, who will cross the $3 trillion finish line first?
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